Analysis — Setups — Breakdowns

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Market analysis from the desk — setups, breakdowns, and the levels worth watching. Read the thesis, then test your own instinct on the daily games.

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Anthropic S-1 filing – an analyst's breakdown
OverviewAnalysisNov 4, 2026

Anthropic S-1 filing – an analyst's breakdown

A breakdown of Anthropic's IPO filing: how its revenue engine works, why the headline loss is mostly accounting, what the compute commitments mean and who really controls the company.

13 min readRead
Generative AI announcements delivered a +1.84% average abnormal return, event study finds
Deep AnalysisAnalysisOct 31, 2026

Generative AI announcements delivered a +1.84% average abnormal return, event study finds

Kabir Bhushan's 2026 event study of six AI-linked stocks and 18 generative-AI announcements finds a +1.84% average announcement-day abnormal return and further gains the next day. We read the paper closely, checked the price moves, and note where its tables don't agree.

12 min readRead
Anthropic S-1 deep dive: unit economics, the compute bill and who controls the company
Deep AnalysisAnalysisNov 4, 2026

Anthropic S-1 deep dive: unit economics, the compute bill and who controls the company

Our full read of Anthropic's S-1 and amended filing: quarterly unit economics, the fair-value accounting behind the net loss, the compute commitment stack, vendor financing, governance mechanics and the open questions.

21 min readRead
Everyone left the meeting early
OverviewAnalysisSep 16, 2026

Everyone left the meeting early

Zoom's enterprise business just grew at its fastest rate in three years, the company sits on $7.2 billion of cash, and a private investment it made in 2023 is now carried at $3.13 billion. We look at what the market is actually paying for.

11 min readRead
Duolingo lost its streak
Deep AnalysisAnalysis

Duolingo lost its streak

Duolingo's users grew 23% last quarter while bookings grew 8%. We take the Q2 2026 filings apart line by line to work out whether that gap is a deliberate investment or the first sign of something structural.

19 min readRead
Is Adobe the best value stock on the market?
OverviewAnalysisJun 16, 2026

Is Adobe the best value stock on the market?

Adobe’s revenues keep hitting record highs and its margins remain elite. Yet the stock trades at its lowest valuation in over a decade. We break down the bull case, the bear case, and what the market is really pricing in.

4 min readRead
Where the old world of aviation ends up
OverviewAnalysisJul 29, 2026

Where the old world of aviation ends up

An analysis of the companies that power global aviation outside of the 1st world.

7 min readRead
Why GoPro Fell
OverviewAnalysisJun 12, 2026

Why GoPro Fell

What happens when a company synonymous with adventure forgets how to take risks? GoPro's wild ride from a billion-dollar peak to the brink of collapse isn't just about competitors, but rather a tale of private jets, incremental upgrades, and a founder who cashed out while the world sped past. The real question isn't if they fell, but why no one saw the cliff coming.

8 min readRead
SpaceX S-1 filing - an analyst’s breakdown
OverviewAnalysisJun 11, 2026

SpaceX S-1 filing - an analyst’s breakdown

A deep dive into SpaceX's revenue models, capital expenditures, and strategic growth drivers.

6 min readRead
I haven't Reddit
Deep AnalysisAnalysisJun 22, 2026

I haven't Reddit

Reddit is the cheapest mass advertising platform with 93.64% revenue from ads, but aggressive data restrictions, slowing user growth from 51% to 17%, and temporary pricing advantages threaten long-term valuation.

18 min readRead
Peloton: flat tire on the fitness hype
OverviewAnalysisJun 15, 2026

Peloton: flat tire on the fitness hype

How Peloton Destroyed Itself Through Hubris, Pandemic Blindness, and Execution Failure. This analysis breaks down how demand normalization, hardware collapse, subscription stagnation, inventory overhang, and a fatal narrative re-rating destroyed the “Netflix of fitness.”

8 min readRead