Analysis — Setups — Breakdowns

Read the market.

Market analysis from the desk — setups, breakdowns, and the levels worth watching. Read the thesis, then test your own instinct on the daily games.

Duolingo lost its streak
Deep AnalysisAnalysis

Duolingo lost its streak

Duolingo's users grew 23% last quarter while bookings grew 8%. We take the Q2 2026 filings apart line by line to work out whether that gap is a deliberate investment or the first sign of something structural.

19 min readRead →
Is Adobe the best value stock on the market?
OverviewAnalysisJun 16, 2026

Is Adobe the best value stock on the market?

Adobe’s revenues keep hitting record highs and its margins remain elite. Yet the stock trades at its lowest valuation in over a decade. We break down the bull case, the bear case, and what the market is really pricing in.

4 min readRead →
Where the old world of aviation ends up
OverviewAnalysisJul 29, 2026

Where the old world of aviation ends up

An analysis of the companies that power global aviation outside of the 1st world.

7 min readRead →
Why GoPro Fell
OverviewAnalysisJun 12, 2026

Why GoPro Fell

What happens when a company synonymous with adventure forgets how to take risks? GoPro's wild ride from a billion-dollar peak to the brink of collapse isn't just about competitors, but rather a tale of private jets, incremental upgrades, and a founder who cashed out while the world sped past. The real question isn't if they fell, but why no one saw the cliff coming.

8 min readRead →
SpaceX S-1 filing - an analyst’s breakdown
OverviewAnalysisJun 11, 2026

SpaceX S-1 filing - an analyst’s breakdown

A deep dive into SpaceX's revenue models, capital expenditures, and strategic growth drivers.

6 min readRead →
I haven't Reddit
Deep AnalysisAnalysisJun 22, 2026

I haven't Reddit

Reddit is the cheapest mass advertising platform with 93.64% revenue from ads, but aggressive data restrictions, slowing user growth from 51% to 17%, and temporary pricing advantages threaten long-term valuation.

18 min readRead →
Peloton: flat tire on the fitness hype
OverviewAnalysisJun 15, 2026

Peloton: flat tire on the fitness hype

How Peloton Destroyed Itself Through Hubris, Pandemic Blindness, and Execution Failure. This analysis breaks down how demand normalization, hardware collapse, subscription stagnation, inventory overhang, and a fatal narrative re-rating destroyed the “Netflix of fitness.”

8 min readRead →